SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees SV Elversberg travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Elversberg — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Elversberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Elversberg's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SV Darmstadt 98) versus 1.30 (SV Elversberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for SV Elversberg and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 0–4 with SV Elversberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 41% of games.
SV Elversberg trading profile (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 57% versus SV Elversberg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 63% | SV Elversberg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 xG and SV Elversberg 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.014 / defence 0.883 | SV Elversberg attack 0.903 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.541. SV Elversberg's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 20 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 54 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 36%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | SV Elversberg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Elversberg are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 70% | SV Elversberg 30%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 / SV Elversberg 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.014 / def 0.883 | SV Elversberg attack 0.903 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
SV Darmstadt 98 0 - 3 SV Elversberg.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 35% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
Record (1 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 0W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. SV Elversberg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 1.01x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
35%
2.88
29%
3.43
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.43
1.23
SV Elversberg xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
11%
9.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.23 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 54 games, going 9W 15D 30L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Elversberg sit at 1.33 PPG from 54 outings (20W 12D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for SV Elversberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of SV Darmstadt 98 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 4W 7D 15L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, SV Elversberg have taken 1.27 points per game from 26 outings (9W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.56 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Elversberg in 61%.
Last 54 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 9W 15D 30L in their last 54 games (0.78 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 20W 12D 22L in their last 54 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SV Elversberg's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.73 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Aug 2024, when SV Elversberg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 0, SV Elversberg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-3 SV Elversberg.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 54%, SV Elversberg 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 58% (SV Elversberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 46% of games; SV Elversberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 58% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 58% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Elversberg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SV Darmstadt 98.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat SV Darmstadt 98 0-3 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.20 xG and SV Elversberg 1.23 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. SV Elversberg outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.01 / defence 0.88 against SV Elversberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 35% | Draw 29% | SV Elversberg 36%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 63%, SV Elversberg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.