SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor plays host to SV Darmstadt 98 versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 31 October 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SV Darmstadt 98 have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. 1. FC Magdeburg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Magdeburg are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: SV Darmstadt 98 2W, 1. FC Magdeburg 2W, 2D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
SV Darmstadt 98 half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Magdeburg half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 58% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 55% | 1. FC Magdeburg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.32 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / defence 0.995 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.133 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.590. Data: 38 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 38 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 28% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 49%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 3.57 | Draw 4.35 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2.04. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 28% | Draw 23% | 1. FC Magdeburg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.32 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.858 / def 0.995 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.133 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.590 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.79
1. FC Magdeburg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 28% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (6 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 2W | Draws 2 | 1. FC Magdeburg 2W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.86x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.13x) against SV Darmstadt 98's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
28%
3.53
23%
4.33
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.12
1.79
1. FC Magdeburg xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
17%
6.01
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
5%
21.18
13%
7.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.5 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.79 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 38 games, going 13W 14D 11L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (14W 3D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for SV Darmstadt 98 against 1.18 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (8W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Darmstadt 98 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.55 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 13W 14D 11L in their last 38 games (1.39 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 14W 3D 21L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.89 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 4-1 on 2 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
2
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 6 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 47%, 1. FC Magdeburg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 63% (1. FC Magdeburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 26% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 53% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 63% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.