SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Sandhausen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome SV Sandhausen to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Saturday 1 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1W 4D 5L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 0.70 PPG versus SV Sandhausen's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% and SV Sandhausen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% | SV Sandhausen 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / defence 1.256 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.922 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.332. Data: 9 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 43 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 41%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | SV Sandhausen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SV Sandhausen are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Sandhausen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% | SV Sandhausen 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 / SV Sandhausen 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.905 / def 1.256 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.922 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.332 • Poisson stance: SV Sandhausen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.54
SV Sandhausen xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 33% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SV Sandhausen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack at 0.91x the league average against SV Sandhausen's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Sandhausen Win
33%
3.01
25%
3.93
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.91
1.54
SV Sandhausen xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.07
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.54 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 0.58 PPG on a 4W 13D 26L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 12W 13D 18L from 43 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-L. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Sandhausen are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Venue Form
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 0.90 PPG from 21 outings (4W 7D 10L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 7D 8L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.21 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; SV Sandhausen in 65%.
Last 43 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 4W 13D 26L in their last 43 games (0.58 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 12W 13D 18L in their last 43 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SV Sandhausen's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.90 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
SV Sandhausen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 67%, SV Sandhausen at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 48% (SV Sandhausen).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 48% of SV Sandhausen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 10, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SV Sandhausen drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.36 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.91 / defence 1.26 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 33% | Draw 25% | SV Sandhausen 41%, with SV Sandhausen to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67%, SV Sandhausen 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Sandhausen arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.