SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host Holstein Kiel at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are in the better shape of the two on current 2. Bundesliga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 3 for Holstein Kiel and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% versus Holstein Kiel 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Holstein Kiel 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.39 xG and Holstein Kiel 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / defence 0.980 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.706 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.295. Data: 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 42 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% | Draw 28% | Holstein Kiel 24%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Holstein Kiel 4.17. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Holstein Kiel 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% | Draw 28% | Holstein Kiel 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.39 / Holstein Kiel 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / def 0.980 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.706 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Holstein Kiel xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 48% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Record (6 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 3W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Holstein Kiel's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.63
24%
4.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.28
0.90
Holstein Kiel xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.13
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
16.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 0.90 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 42 games, going 12W 10D 20L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Holstein Kiel sit at 1.10 PPG from 42 outings (11W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.10 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 7W 6D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Holstein Kiel have taken 0.95 points per game from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L).
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.21 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Holstein Kiel away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.29 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Holstein Kiel have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, Holstein Kiel 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 52% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 62% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 52% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.