SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hertha BSC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SpVgg Greuther Fürth face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees Hertha BSC travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 2 March 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 5W 2D 3L at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hertha BSC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Hertha BSC have the better historical record — 6 wins from 9 previous contests against 2 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Hertha BSC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Hertha BSC have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% versus Hertha BSC 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 xG and Hertha BSC 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / defence 0.980 | Hertha BSC attack 1.244 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.295. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 42 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 42 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 43%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Hertha BSC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | Hertha BSC 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 32% | Draw 25% | Hertha BSC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.32 / Hertha BSC 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.913 / def 0.980 | Hertha BSC attack 1.244 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.635 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hertha BSC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 32% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Record (9 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 6W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.91) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
32%
3.14
25%
4.06
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.90
1.58
Hertha BSC xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.85
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
7%
15.24
12%
8.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.58 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 12W 10D 20L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 21W 10D 11L across 42 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hertha BSC by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 12W 5D 4L across 21 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.57 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.29 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.95 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2023, when Hertha BSC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
6
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
From 9 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hertha BSC have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Hertha BSC 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC?
Hertha BSC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, Hertha BSC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 62% (Hertha BSC).
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 43%; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hertha BSC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 52% of Hertha BSC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 62% of Hertha BSC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.