SC Paderborn 07 1-1 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates SV Elversberg at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host SV Elversberg at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SC Paderborn 07's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Home Deluxe Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Home Deluxe Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SV Elversberg stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
SV Elversberg's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SC Paderborn 07 at 1.70 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 1 for SV Elversberg and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SC Paderborn 07 70% and SV Elversberg 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 69% | SV Elversberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / defence 1.209 | SV Elversberg attack 1.061 / defence 0.639. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.252. SV Elversberg's defence strength of 0.639 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 SC Paderborn 07 games / 64 SV Elversberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | SV Elversberg 2.04. SV Elversberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SV Elversberg as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Elversberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | SV Elversberg 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.05 / SV Elversberg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.112 / def 1.209 | SV Elversberg attack 1.061 / def 0.639 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: SV Elversberg (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
SC Paderborn 07 1 - 1 SV Elversberg.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 24% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SV Elversberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
Record (3 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 0 | SV Elversberg 1W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.11x the league average against SV Elversberg's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Elversberg Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.66
1.61
SV Elversberg xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
5%
20.87
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.61 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 28W 16D 20L record — W-L-L-L-W across the most recent five.
SV Elversberg's form line: 25W 16D 23L from 64 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.56 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.52 PPG from 31 outings (14W 5D 12L).
On the road, SV Elversberg have gone 11W 9D 11L from 31 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.62 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
SV Elversberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 28W 16D 20L in their last 64 games (1.56 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 25W 16D 23L in their last 64 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or SV Elversberg away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.52 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SV Elversberg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when SV Elversberg 5-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 64%, SV Elversberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for SC Paderborn 07 and 55% for SV Elversberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play SV Elversberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 55% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs SV Elversberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 55% of SV Elversberg's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SV Elversberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 and SV Elversberg finished level at 1-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.05 xG and SV Elversberg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.11 / defence 1.21 against SV Elversberg attack 1.06 / defence 0.64, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 24% | Draw 27% | SV Elversberg 49%, with SV Elversberg to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 69%, SV Elversberg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.56 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.