SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hertha BSC make the trip to Home Deluxe Arena to face SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Hertha BSC's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.40 for Hertha BSC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 2W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.4 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–0 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 64% versus Hertha BSC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 61% | Hertha BSC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.081 / defence 1.051 | Hertha BSC attack 1.272 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.354. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 SC Paderborn 07 games / 56 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Hertha BSC 2.13. Hertha BSC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.34 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.34 / Hertha BSC 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.081 / def 1.051 | Hertha BSC attack 1.272 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Hertha BSC xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
SC Paderborn 07 5 - 2 Hertha BSC.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 3W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SC Paderborn 07's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (1.27x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
27%
3.71
26%
3.81
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.15
1.81
Hertha BSC xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
16%
6.11
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
4%
22.69
12%
8.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.81 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 27W 14D 15L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 21W 15D 20L from 56 games, 1.39 PPG, last five D-D-D-W-L. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for SC Paderborn 07 against 1.39 for Hertha BSC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (14W 4D 9L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 13W 6D 8L from 27 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.41 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 27W 14D 15L in their last 56 games (1.70 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 21W 15D 20L in their last 56 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Hertha BSC away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.70 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.67 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Hertha BSC been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Hertha BSC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Paderborn 07 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 5-2 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
0
Draws
3
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 5-2 Hertha BSC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 70%, Hertha BSC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 56% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of Hertha BSC's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hertha BSC 5-2 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.34 xG and Hertha BSC 1.81 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Hertha BSC attack 1.27 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 27% | Draw 26% | Hertha BSC 47%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 61%, Hertha BSC 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Paderborn 07 1.70 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.70 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.