SC Paderborn 07 3-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as SC Paderborn 07 take on FC St. Pauli.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as SC Paderborn 07 welcome FC St. Pauli to Benteler-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 1W 2D 0L from 3 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.67 points per game. Last five: D D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have recorded 2W 1D 0L from 3 outings — 2.33 PPG. Last five: W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC St. Pauli have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. FC St. Pauli's 2.33 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of SC Paderborn 07's 1.67 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 67% versus FC St. Pauli 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SC Paderborn 07 67% | FC St. Pauli 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.11 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / defence 1.226 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.696 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.030 / away 1.350. Data: 3 SC Paderborn 07 games / 3 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 33%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | FC St. Pauli 3.03. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates are neutral: SC Paderborn 07 67% | FC St. Pauli 33%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Benteler-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 50% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.11 / FC St. Pauli 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.067 / def 1.226 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.696 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.030 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
FC St. Pauli xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Benteler-Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
SC Paderborn 07 3 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Benteler-Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 31% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 33% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 1W-2D-0L in 3 | 1.67 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-1D-0L in 3 | 2.33 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (1.07) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.26
37%
2.73
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.26
1.15
FC St. Pauli xG
3.26
31%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
10%
10.30
11%
9.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.15 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 0L across 3 games — 2.33 PPG, with W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SC Paderborn 07 heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.00 scored and 0.67 conceded. SC Paderborn 07's scoring rate against FC St. Pauli's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 67% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC St. Pauli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 0L in their last 3 (2.33 PPG).
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 67%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 67%, FC St. Pauli 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 67% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC St. Pauli in 67%; SC Paderborn 07 have failed to score in 33% of games; FC St. Pauli in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC St. Pauli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SC Paderborn 07's recent matches and 33% of FC St. Pauli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 67% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat FC St. Pauli 3-1 at Benteler-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 1.11 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.15 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 1.01, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 31% | Draw 37% | FC St. Pauli 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 67%, FC St. Pauli 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with SC Paderborn 07 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Paderborn 07 scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. FC St. Pauli managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.