SC Paderborn 07 5-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host Eintracht Braunschweig at Home Deluxe Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 6W 0D 4L at Home Deluxe Arena — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.10 (Eintracht Braunschweig). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for SC Paderborn 07, 0 for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games).
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 52% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 69% | Eintracht Braunschweig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.283 / defence 0.964 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.925 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.285. SC Paderborn 07 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.283 — their λ of 2.32 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 SC Paderborn 07 games / 29 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Eintracht Braunschweig 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.46 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 50% | Eintracht Braunschweig 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 61% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.32 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.283 / def 0.964 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.925 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
61%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 28 April 2023 at Home Deluxe Arena.
What was the final score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 5 - 1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 64% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 18% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SC Paderborn 07's attack at 1.28x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Braunschweig's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.29
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.46
1.15
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.29
19%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
10%
10.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
2%
58.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.15 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 29 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 14W 5D 10L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Eintracht Braunschweig's form line: 8W 8D 13L from 29 games, 1.10 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Eintracht Braunschweig.
Venue Form
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2.14 PPG from 14 outings (10W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — SC Paderborn 07 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 5D 7L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.21 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Current Season
Eintracht Braunschweig
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 14W 5D 10L in their last 29 games (1.62 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 8W 8D 13L in their last 29 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 2.14 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.79 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Eintracht Braunschweig been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Eintracht Braunschweig in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting Eintracht Braunschweig specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SC Paderborn 07
3
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 50%, Eintracht Braunschweig 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for SC Paderborn 07 and 57% for Eintracht Braunschweig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 71% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 57% of Eintracht Braunschweig's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SC Paderborn 07 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Eintracht Braunschweig.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Eintracht Braunschweig 5-1 at Home Deluxe Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Paderborn 07 2.32 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.15 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.28 / defence 0.96 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.93 / defence 1.17, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Paderborn 07 64% | Draw 19% | Eintracht Braunschweig 18%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Paderborn 07 69%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.71 average — above their attacking norm. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.