Preußen Münster 3-3 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Preußen-Stadion to face Preußen Münster in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Friday 13 September 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Preußen Münster (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Preußen Münster have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Paderborn 07 are 1.85 PPG clear of Preußen Münster in recent 2. Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 0.25). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Preußen Münster half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 50% and SC Paderborn 07 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 50% | SC Paderborn 07 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 0.82 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.614 / defence 0.954 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.078 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.356. Preußen Münster's attack strength of 0.614 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 4 Preußen Münster games / 38 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 20% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 48%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 5.00 | Draw 3.23 | SC Paderborn 07 2.08. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Preußen Münster 50% | SC Paderborn 07 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Preußen-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 13 Sep 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 20% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Preußen Münster 0.82 / SC Paderborn 07 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.614 / def 0.954 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.078 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 13 September 2024 at Preußen-Stadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07?
Preußen Münster 3 - 3 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Preußen-Stadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 20% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 48% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Preußen Münster's attack rating (0.61) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 0.82 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.08x) against Preußen Münster's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 4/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
20%
4.93
31%
3.19
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
2.22
1.39
SC Paderborn 07 xG
4.93
20%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 15.2 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.39 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Preußen Münster come into this having played 4 games, going 0W 1D 3L for 0.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Preußen Münster, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 2.00 PPG from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Preußen Münster — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Preußen Münster are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.50 scored and 0.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 75%.
Last 4 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 2D 0L in their last 4 (2.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preußen Münster have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Preußen Münster
2
Draws
2
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-1 Preußen Münster.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Preußen Münster see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 50%, SC Paderborn 07 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Preußen Münster) and 50% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Preußen Münster have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Preußen Münster's games and 75% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 3-3 at Preußen-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 0.82 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.39 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Preußen Münster beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.61 / defence 0.95 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 4/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 20% | Draw 31% | SC Paderborn 07 48%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 50%, SC Paderborn 07 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Preußen Münster scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.