Karlsruher SC 1-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karlsruher SC at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karlsruher SC face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to BBBank Wildpark to take on Karlsruher SC in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Karlsruher SC have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Karlsruher SC have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Karlsruher SC 1.20 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Karlsruher SC, 1 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 23 Nov 2024, ended Karlsruher SC 3–2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth — a Karlsruher SC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Karlsruher SC 67% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karlsruher SC 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karlsruher SC 1.63 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karlsruher SC attack 0.982 / defence 0.985 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.813 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.258. Data: built from Karlsruher SC's last 63 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 63.
Result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 50% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22%. Fair-value odds: Karlsruher SC 1.98 | Draw 3.63 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.55. Karlsruher SC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karlsruher SC as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Karlsruher SC's last 10 home games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karlsruher SC 60% (last 10 home games) | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 30 | Venue: BBBank Wildpark • Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karlsruher SC 50% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Karlsruher SC 1.63 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Karlsruher SC attack 0.982 / def 0.985 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.813 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Karlsruher SC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth FAQs
What time does Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 20 April 2025 at BBBank Wildpark.
What was the final score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC 1 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at BBBank Wildpark.
What competition is Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 30) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Karlsruher SC a 50% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Karlsruher SC's attack at 0.98x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Karlsruher SC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Karlsruher SC's last 63 games and SpVgg Greuther Fürth's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
50%
1.98
28%
3.63
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Karlsruher SC xG
Total xG
2.63
1.01
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
23.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Karlsruher SC and 1.01 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Karlsruher SC come into this having played 63 games, going 26W 18D 19L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.35 PPG from 63 outings (23W 16D 24L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karlsruher SC on 1.52 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Karlsruher SC's home form reads 16W 8D 7L across their last 31 home games, a 1.81 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 31 away games (8W 7D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Karlsruher SC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Karlsruher SC are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.44 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
Karlsruher SC (Home) vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karlsruher SC
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Form FAQs
What form are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Karlsruher SC have gone 26W 18D 19L in their last 63 games (1.52 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 23W 16D 24L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karlsruher SC at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Karlsruher SC's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karlsruher SC at home: 1.81 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 20 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Karlsruher SC have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 2 Mar 2024, when Karlsruher SC won Karlsruher SC 4-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Karlsruher SC's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Karlsruher SC
1
Draws
1
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Karlsruher SC have won 6, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 March 2026: Karlsruher SC 3-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Karlsruher SC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karlsruher SC 64%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Karlsruher SC and 52% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karlsruher SC home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karlsruher SC vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 45% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Karlsruher SC's matches and 52% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Karlsruher SC and SpVgg Greuther Fürth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Karlsruher SC's recent matches and 84% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-0 at BBBank Wildpark, Regular Season - 30, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karlsruher SC 1.63 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karlsruher SC attack 0.98 / defence 0.98 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.81 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karlsruher SC 50% | Draw 28% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 22%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karlsruher SC 70%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karlsruher SC 1.52 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karlsruher SC win broke the near-deadlock. Karlsruher SC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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