SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 SV Wehen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus SV Wehen in 2. Bundesliga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SSV Jahn Regensburg haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SSV Jahn Regensburg at Jahnstadion Regensburg this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SV Wehen's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward SSV Jahn Regensburg. A 0.60 PPG lead over SV Wehen (0.80 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
SSV Jahn Regensburg half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
SV Wehen half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% versus SV Wehen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53% | SV Wehen 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG and SV Wehen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.005 / defence 1.011 | SV Wehen attack 0.723 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.375. Data: 34 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 34 SV Wehen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 51% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 23%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | SV Wehen 4.35. SSV Jahn Regensburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SSV Jahn Regensburg at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 60% | SV Wehen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Relegation Round | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 51% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 / SV Wehen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.005 / def 1.011 | SV Wehen attack 0.723 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SV Wehen xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 2 SV Wehen.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen is a Relegation Round fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 51% chance of winning, SV Wehen a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. SV Wehen (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
SSV Jahn Regensburg's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against SV Wehen's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — SV Wehen's attack (0.72x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
51%
1.94
26%
3.89
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.63
1.00
SV Wehen xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
5%
22.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.00 for SV Wehen, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 34 outings, SSV Jahn Regensburg have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 8W 7D 19L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. SSV Jahn Regensburg haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SV Wehen's form line: 8W 8D 18L from 34 games, 0.94 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 0.94 for SV Wehen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 1.12 PPG from 17 outings (4W 7D 6L).
On the road, SV Wehen have gone 4W 3D 10L from 17 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; SV Wehen are on 1.06 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Pre-Season
SV Wehen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 8W 7D 19L in their last 34 games (0.91 PPG), while SV Wehen have gone 8W 8D 18L in their last 34 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or SV Wehen away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.12 PPG; SV Wehen away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
0
SV Wehen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 1, SV Wehen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen last play each other?
They last met on 28 May 2024, when SV Wehen 1-2 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 47%, SV Wehen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SSV Jahn Regensburg) and 47% (SV Wehen).
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 35% of games; SV Wehen in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / SV Wehen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play SV Wehen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 47% of SV Wehen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SV Wehen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent games and 47% of SV Wehen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SV Wehen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and SV Wehen finished level at 2-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Relegation Round, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.63 xG and SV Wehen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SV Wehen outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.01 against SV Wehen attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 51% | Draw 26% | SV Wehen 23%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 53%, SV Wehen 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
SV Wehen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 0.91 PPG, SV Wehen 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. SV Wehen (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.