SSV Jahn Regensburg 1-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 20 March 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Current Form

SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Jahnstadion Regensburg — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.

SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SC Paderborn 07's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

SC Paderborn 07 arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — SSV Jahn Regensburg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, SC Paderborn 07 0W, 1D.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

SC Paderborn 07 — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% and SC Paderborn 07 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 65% | SC Paderborn 07 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.47 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.020 / defence 1.291 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.088 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.466. SC Paderborn 07 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 26 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 25% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 49%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 2.04. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.53 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 80% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.

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