SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock meet at Jahnstadion Regensburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jahnstadion Regensburg, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 4W 2D 0L this season (6 games, 2.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.83 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock away from home this season: 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. SSV Jahn Regensburg's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Hansa Rostock's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
SSV Jahn Regensburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 58% versus Hansa Rostock 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67% | Hansa Rostock 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.20 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.499 / defence 1.235 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.730 / defence 1.271. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.360. SSV Jahn Regensburg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.499 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hansa Rostock bring a strong defensive rating of 1.271 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 12 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 18%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Hansa Rostock 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SSV Jahn Regensburg (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: SSV Jahn Regensburg 83% | Hansa Rostock 17%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 65% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.20 / Hansa Rostock 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.499 / def 1.235 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.730 / def 1.271 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hansa Rostock xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 3 Hansa Rostock.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 57% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack rating (1.50) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.73x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.96
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
3.43
1.23
Hansa Rostock xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
11%
9.05
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
2%
50.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.23 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent record stands at 7W 4D 1L from 12 games, a 2.08 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 4W 2D 6L across 12 games — 1.17 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SSV Jahn Regensburg by 0.91 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SSV Jahn Regensburg have managed 4W 2D 0L from 6 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SSV Jahn Regensburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.08 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 4D 1L in their last 12 games (2.08 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 4W 2D 6L in their last 12 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or Hansa Rostock away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 2.33 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.17 PPG.
Have SSV Jahn Regensburg or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hansa Rostock have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hansa Rostock won 0-3 on 29 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
3
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hansa Rostock 2-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 83%, Hansa Rostock 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 50% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 33%; Hansa Rostock in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 17% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-3 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.20 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.23 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Hansa Rostock outscored their 1.23 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 1.50 / defence 1.24 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.73 / defence 1.27, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 57% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 18%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 67%, Hansa Rostock 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SSV Jahn Regensburg arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 2.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.