Holstein Kiel 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 January 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.60 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Holstein Kiel, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 65% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 65% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / defence 0.994 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.861 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.308. Data: 51 Holstein Kiel games / 17 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 4.17. Holstein Kiel hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 70% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jan 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.76 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.074 / def 0.994 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.861 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 January 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 52% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): Holstein Kiel 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
52%
1.91
24%
4.22
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.88
1.12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
4%
24.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.1 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 18W 16D 17L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 7W 17D 27L from 51 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Holstein Kiel are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.56 PPG from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 7D 17L from 25 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 0.98 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 69%.
Last 51 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 18W 16D 17L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 17D 27L in their last 51 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.56 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 48%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Holstein Kiel and 76% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Holstein Kiel's games and 72% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 76% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.76 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.12 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.07 / defence 0.99 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 51/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 52% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 24%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 65%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Holstein Kiel arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.