Holstein Kiel 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holstein-Stadion plays host to Holstein Kiel versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 25 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel at Holstein-Stadion this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Holstein Kiel, 1.60 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Holstein Kiel 1W, SC Paderborn 07 2W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–7 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 67% and SC Paderborn 07 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 67% | SC Paderborn 07 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.56 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.053 / defence 1.139 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.132 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.317. Data: 55 Holstein Kiel games / 55 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 41%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | SC Paderborn 07 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 6.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 80% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.56 / SC Paderborn 07 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.053 / def 1.139 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.132 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.317 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.70
SC Paderborn 07 xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 25 February 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 35% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.05) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.13x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
35%
2.82
23%
4.32
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.25
1.70
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.82
35%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
18%
5.46
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
6%
15.41
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.70 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 55 games, going 20W 16D 19L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.62 PPG from 55 outings (25W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.62 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 12W 6D 9L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.70 points per game from 27 outings (13W 7D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.84 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 14D 16L in their last 55 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.56 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 7-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 52%, SC Paderborn 07 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Holstein Kiel and 63% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 33%; SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 52% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 63% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.56 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.70 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.05 / defence 1.14 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.13 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 35% | Draw 23% | SC Paderborn 07 41%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, SC Paderborn 07 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.38 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.