Holstein Kiel 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 May 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Holstein Kiel's home record at Holstein-Stadion: 7W 0D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Holstein-Stadion.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Fortuna Düsseldorf away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Holstein Kiel at 2.20 PPG versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's 2.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Holstein Kiel, 2 for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Holstein Kiel winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Holstein Kiel in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 64% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Holstein Kiel 65% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.52 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.151 / defence 1.053 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.354 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.394. Fortuna Düsseldorf have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 1.99 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 66 Holstein Kiel games / 66 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 29% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.08. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.51. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.51 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.51 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 50% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 29% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.52 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.151 / def 1.053 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.354 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.394 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 May 2024 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 29% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Record (5 meetings): Holstein Kiel 2W | Draws 1 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Holstein Kiel's attack at 1.15x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
29%
3.41
22%
4.48
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.51
1.99
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
3.41
29%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
14%
7.29
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
4%
24.86
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.99 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 3.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 32W 14D 20L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form line: 34W 15D 17L from 66 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.67 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.52 PPG from 33 outings (15W 5D 13L).
On the road, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 14W 8D 11L from 33 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.94 scored and 1.21 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Current Season
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 32W 14D 20L in their last 66 games (1.67 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 34W 15D 17L in their last 66 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.52 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Holstein Kiel or Fortuna Düsseldorf been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
2
Draws
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Holstein Kiel.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 73%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Holstein Kiel and 61% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Holstein Kiel's games and 52% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 61% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel and Fortuna Düsseldorf finished level at 1-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.52 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.99 xG, a combined 3.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.15 / defence 1.05 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.35 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 29% | Draw 22% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 65%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.67 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.