Holstein Kiel 0-3 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Schalke 04 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Holstein Kiel host FC Schalke 04 at Holstein-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Holstein Kiel — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.67 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 2W 0D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Schalke 04's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 0.60 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Holstein Kiel 33% versus FC Schalke 04 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 67% | FC Schalke 04 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.08 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 0.970 / defence 1.150 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.401. Data: 1 Holstein Kiel games / 1 FC Schalke 04 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 40%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | FC Schalke 04 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Schalke 04 at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Holstein Kiel 33% | FC Schalke 04 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.08 / FC Schalke 04 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 0.970 / def 1.150 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel 0 - 3 FC Schalke 04.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 26% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 40% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.67 | L5 W-L-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (0.97) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
26%
3.90
35%
2.89
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
2.45
1.37
FC Schalke 04 xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
15.34
14%
7.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.37 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 2L record — W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Schalke 04's form line: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-L. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.00 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.67 scored and 2.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Schalke 04 in 67%.
Last 3 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Holstein Kiel or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Holstein Kiel have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Aug 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, FC Schalke 04 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Holstein Kiel 33%, FC Schalke 04 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Holstein Kiel and 67% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Holstein Kiel keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Holstein Kiel have failed to score in 33% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Holstein Kiel's recent matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Holstein Kiel vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 67% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do Holstein Kiel and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Schalke 04 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Schalke 04 beat Holstein Kiel 0-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.08 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.37 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Holstein Kiel fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Schalke 04 outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against FC Schalke 04 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 26% | Draw 35% | FC Schalke 04 40%, with FC Schalke 04 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 67%, FC Schalke 04 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.00 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Schalke 04 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Schalke 04 scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.