Hansa Rostock 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

SC Paderborn 07 make the trip to Ostseestadion to face Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.

Form

Hansa Rostock (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Hansa Rostock's home record at Ostseestadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

SC Paderborn 07 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Paderborn 07 in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 0 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Hansa Rostock half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).

SC Paderborn 07 half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hansa Rostock 58% and SC Paderborn 07 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 55% | SC Paderborn 07 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 0.98 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.782 / defence 1.068 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.928 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.476. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Hansa Rostock games / 31 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 22% | Draw 32% | SC Paderborn 07 45%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | SC Paderborn 07 2.22. SC Paderborn 07 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 60% | SC Paderborn 07 60% BTTS from recent games.

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