Hansa Rostock 1-0 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees FC St. Pauli travel to Ostseestadion to take on Hansa Rostock. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hansa Rostock stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock at Ostseestadion this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ostseestadion this season.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hansa Rostock at 1.50 PPG versus FC St. Pauli's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hansa Rostock register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hansa Rostock in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hansa Rostock 59% and FC St. Pauli 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 56% | FC St. Pauli 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.781 / defence 1.203 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.955 / defence 1.348. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.438. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.18 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.348 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Hansa Rostock games / 27 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 46%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | FC St. Pauli 2.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 60% | FC St. Pauli 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.18 / FC St. Pauli 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.781 / def 1.203 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.955 / def 1.348 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.65
FC St. Pauli xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 0 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 25% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.78) and FC St. Pauli's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Hansa Rostock's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
25%
3.98
29%
3.46
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.83
1.65
FC St. Pauli xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
5%
20.77
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.65 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hansa Rostock's recent record stands at 9W 7D 11L from 27 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 6L across 27 games — 1.89 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC St. Pauli by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hansa Rostock have managed 3W 3D 7L from 13 games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC St. Pauli's away record stands at 5W 3D 5L across 13 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.96 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli in 63%.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 9W 7D 11L in their last 27 games (1.26 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 15W 6D 6L in their last 27 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or FC St. Pauli away?
FC St. Pauli's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.92 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC St. Pauli have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Oct 2021, when FC St. Pauli won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hansa Rostock's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hansa Rostock
0
Draws
4
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 2, FC St. Pauli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2024, when FC St. Pauli 1-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hansa Rostock at 69%, FC St. Pauli at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Hansa Rostock and 69% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Hansa Rostock's games and 77% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 69% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Hansa Rostock and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat FC St. Pauli 1-0 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.18 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.65 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.95 / defence 1.35, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 25% | Draw 29% | FC St. Pauli 46%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 56%, FC St. Pauli 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.