Hansa Rostock 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Hansa Rostock (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 3W 1D 6L at Ostseestadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 2 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 0–2 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 49% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 51% | 1. FC Nürnberg 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.712 / defence 1.098 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.773 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.395 / away 1.265. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 49 Hansa Rostock games / 49 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 35%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 30% | 1. FC Nürnberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.03 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.712 / def 1.098 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.773 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.395 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.07
1. FC Nürnberg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 9 November 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hansa Rostock 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 33% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (2 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.71) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.77x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
33%
3.05
32%
3.13
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.10
1.07
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
11%
8.90
13%
7.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.07 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 49 games, going 15W 13D 21L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.35 PPG from 49 outings (18W 12D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Hansa Rostock against 1.35 for 1. FC Nürnberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 7W 5D 13L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (8W 8D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.27 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 18W 12D 19L in their last 49 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 1.04 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hansa Rostock 52%, 1. FC Nürnberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Hansa Rostock) and 56% (1. FC Nürnberg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg in 32%; Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 40% of games; 1. FC Nürnberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hansa Rostock's recent matches and 52% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Hansa Rostock's recent games and 56% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.03 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.03, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 33% | Draw 32% | 1. FC Nürnberg 35%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 51%, 1. FC Nürnberg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hansa Rostock 1.18 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.