Hansa Rostock 0-2 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg meet at Ostseestadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 26 February 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hansa Rostock (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hansa Rostock have posted 2W 3D 5L at Ostseestadion — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Nürnberg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hansa Rostock, 1 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hansa Rostock 61% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hansa Rostock 56% | 1. FC Nürnberg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hansa Rostock 1.06 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hansa Rostock attack 0.680 / defence 1.094 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.803 / defence 1.366. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.453. Hansa Rostock's attack strength of 0.680 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.366 — this is suppressing Hansa Rostock's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Hansa Rostock games / 23 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Hansa Rostock 3.70 | Draw 2.86 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Hansa Rostock 70% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ostseestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 51% | xG Hansa Rostock 1.06 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Hansa Rostock attack 0.680 / def 1.094 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.803 / def 1.366 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Hansa Rostock xG
Expected Goals
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Ostseestadion.
What was the final score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hansa Rostock 0 - 2 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Ostseestadion.
What competition is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Hansa Rostock a 27% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 38% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): Hansa Rostock 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Hansa Rostock (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hansa Rostock's attack rating (0.68) and 1. FC Nürnberg's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (0.80x) against Hansa Rostock's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
27%
3.67
35%
2.85
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Hansa Rostock xG
Total xG
2.34
1.28
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.67
27%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Hansa Rostock and 1.28 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hansa Rostock come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 7D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.57 PPG from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Hansa Rostock's home form reads 2W 3D 6L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.45 points per game from 11 outings (4W 4D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hansa Rostock are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.39 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hansa Rostock have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hansa Rostock
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Hansa Rostock have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 games (1.09 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 10W 6D 7L in their last 23 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hansa Rostock at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hansa Rostock at home: 0.82 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Hansa Rostock or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hansa Rostock have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Nürnberg won 3-0 on 20 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hansa Rostock have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hansa Rostock
2
Draws
3
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Hansa Rostock have won 1, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Hansa Rostock, 64% for 1. FC Nürnberg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Hansa Rostock) and 64% (1. FC Nürnberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hansa Rostock home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hansa Rostock play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Hansa Rostock's games and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hansa Rostock vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Hansa Rostock's matches and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Hansa Rostock and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Hansa Rostock have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Hansa Rostock 0-2 at Ostseestadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hansa Rostock 1.06 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hansa Rostock fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hansa Rostock attack 0.68 / defence 1.09 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.80 / defence 1.37, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hansa Rostock 27% | Draw 35% | 1. FC Nürnberg 38%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hansa Rostock 56%, 1. FC Nürnberg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.