Hannover 96 3-4 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Heinz von Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 February 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 1.30 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hannover 96, 2 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 2–4 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 47% versus SC Paderborn 07 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 51% | SC Paderborn 07 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.21 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.958 / defence 0.995 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.890 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.303. Data: 53 Hannover 96 games / 53 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 37% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 35%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 60% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 37% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Hannover 96 1.21 / SC Paderborn 07 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.958 / def 0.995 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.890 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hannover 96 3 - 4 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 37% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (3 meetings): Hannover 96 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.96) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
37%
2.68
28%
3.58
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.36
1.15
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.9 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.15 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 13D 21L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.57 PPG from 53 outings (23W 14D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.32 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 11W 8D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.65 points per game from 26 outings (12W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.81 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 19W 13D 21L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 23W 14D 16L in their last 53 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.58 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 42%, SC Paderborn 07 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hannover 96) and 62% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 35%; SC Paderborn 07 in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 50% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hannover 96's recent games and 62% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Paderborn 07 defy the odds to beat Hannover 96 3-4.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat Hannover 96 3-4 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.21 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.15 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. Hannover 96 beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 outscored their 1.15 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.89 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 37% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 35%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual SC Paderborn 07 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 51%, SC Paderborn 07 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.32 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Paderborn 07 win broke the near-deadlock. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.