Hannover 96 0-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 14 as Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to HDI-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at HDI-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 2W 1D 3L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 5W 1D 0L from 6 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.67 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.67 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. SC Paderborn 07's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hannover 96's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hannover 96 38% versus SC Paderborn 07 77%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 38% | SC Paderborn 07 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.703 / defence 1.087 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.469 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.389. Hannover 96's attack strength of 0.703 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. SC Paderborn 07 have an above-average attack strength of 1.469 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Hannover 96 games / 13 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 11% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 64%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 9.09 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 1.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hannover 96 33% | SC Paderborn 07 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 11% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 64% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG Hannover 96 0.91 / SC Paderborn 07 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.703 / def 1.087 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.469 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
2.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
56%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 19 November 2021 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hannover 96 0 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 11% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 64% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.70) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 2.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.0%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
11%
8.71
24%
4.15
64%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
3.13
2.22
SC Paderborn 07 xG
8.71
11%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.55
64%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
11%
9.20
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
1%
80.12
26%
3.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 9.7 | 10.8 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 2.22 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-D. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 2.67 points per game from 6 outings (5W 1D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.85 PPG overall record — SC Paderborn 07 travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.15 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 77%.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 7W 3D 3L in their last 13 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.17 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 2.67 PPG.
Have Hannover 96 or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hannover 96 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hannover 96 33%, SC Paderborn 07 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hannover 96) and 83% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%; Hannover 96 have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hannover 96's recent matches and 67% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Hannover 96's matches and 83% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hannover 96's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 finished level at 0-0 at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 0.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 2.22 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. SC Paderborn 07 landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.70 / defence 1.09 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.47 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 11% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 64%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 38%, SC Paderborn 07 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.