Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Hannover 96 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Heinz von Heiden-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Hannover 96 have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Hannover 96 are significantly better at Heinz von Heiden-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's away record: 4W 5D 1L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hannover 96) versus 1.60 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hannover 96 register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, SC Paderborn 07 have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 1 for Hannover 96.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Hannover 96 in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hannover 96 59% and SC Paderborn 07 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hannover 96 57% | SC Paderborn 07 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.14 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.988 / defence 0.898 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.056 / defence 0.790. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.386. SC Paderborn 07's defence strength of 0.790 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 56 Hannover 96 games / 56 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 39%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | SC Paderborn 07 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hannover 96 60% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Heinz von Heiden-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 31% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Hannover 96 1.14 / SC Paderborn 07 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.988 / def 0.898 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.056 / def 0.790 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.31
SC Paderborn 07 xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Hannover 96 1 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Heinz von Heiden-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 31% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (7 meetings): Hannover 96 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 5W.
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-D. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Hannover 96's attack rating (0.99) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.30
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.46
1.31
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
12%
8.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.31 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96 come into this having played 56 games, going 22W 20D 14L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.59 PPG from 56 outings (25W 14D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hannover 96 on 1.54 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hannover 96's home form reads 15W 9D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.68 points per game from 28 outings (13W 8D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.61 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 in 70%.
Last 56 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 22W 20D 14L in their last 56 games (1.54 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hannover 96 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hannover 96's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hannover 96 at home: 1.93 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2022, when SC Paderborn 07 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hannover 96
3
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hannover 96 1-1 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hannover 96 at 64%, SC Paderborn 07 at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Hannover 96 and 71% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Hannover 96's games and 75% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Hannover 96's matches and 71% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Heinz von Heiden-Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Hannover 96 and SC Paderborn 07 drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.14 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.31 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.06 / defence 0.79, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 31% | Draw 30% | SC Paderborn 07 39%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 57%, SC Paderborn 07 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hannover 96's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hannover 96 1.54 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.