Hannover 96 0-3 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Hannover 96 take on Hansa Rostock.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Hansa Rostock travel to HDI-Arena to take on Hannover 96. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 July 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hannover 96 stand at 0W 1D 0L from 1 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hannover 96 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 3.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hannover 96 carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.00 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hannover 96 1.02 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hannover 96 attack 0.978 / defence 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.177. Data: 1 Hannover 96 games / 1 Hansa Rostock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hannover 96 28% | Draw 37% | Hansa Rostock 35%. Fair-value odds: Hannover 96 3.57 | Draw 2.70 | Hansa Rostock 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.17 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: HDI-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hannover 96 28% | Draw 37% | Hansa Rostock 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 48% | xG Hannover 96 1.02 / Hansa Rostock 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Hannover 96 attack 0.978 / def 1.150 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Hannover 96 xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hansa Rostock xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 31 July 2021 at HDI-Arena.
What was the final score in Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Hannover 96 0 - 3 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at HDI-Arena.
What competition is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Hannover 96 a 28% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock in?
Hannover 96 (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hannover 96's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Hannover 96's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.57
37%
2.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Hannover 96 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.15
Hansa Rostock xG
3.57
28%
Home win
2.68
37%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
13%
7.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 13.1 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Hannover 96 and 1.15 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hannover 96's recent record stands at 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hannover 96, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hannover 96 by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Hannover 96 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.00 scored and 3.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hannover 96 have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 100%.
Last 1 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hannover 96
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Hannover 96 have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 games (1.00 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hannover 96 have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Jul 2021, when Hansa Rostock won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hannover 96's record when hosting Hansa Rostock specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hannover 96
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Hannover 96 have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Hannover 96 2-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hannover 96 home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hannover 96 play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hannover 96's games and 100% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hannover 96 vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hannover 96's recent games and 100% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hannover 96 and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Hannover 96 have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hansa Rostock run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Hannover 96.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Hannover 96 0-3 at HDI-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hannover 96 1.02 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.15 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Hansa Rostock outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hannover 96 attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hannover 96 28% | Draw 37% | Hansa Rostock 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Hansa Rostock win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hannover 96 0%, Hansa Rostock 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hannover 96 managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hansa Rostock scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.