Hamburger SV 0-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 24 July 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Volksparkstadion this season.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Hansa Rostock have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in Hamburger SV's favour (2.40 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hamburger SV 2W, Hansa Rostock 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus Hansa Rostock 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 54% | Hansa Rostock 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.77 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.144 / defence 0.919 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.003 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.305. Data: 35 Hamburger SV games / 35 Hansa Rostock games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 24%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Hansa Rostock 4.17. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | Hansa Rostock 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Jul 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Hamburger SV 1.77 / Hansa Rostock 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.144 / def 0.919 | Hansa Rostock attack 1.003 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 24 July 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Hamburger SV 0 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 49% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
Record (2 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 0W.
What form are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.14) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (1.00x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
49%
2.04
27%
3.73
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.98
1.20
Hansa Rostock xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
17%
5.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
4%
24.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.20 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 17W 11D 7L from 35 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 14L across 35 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 6W 6D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.17 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Early Season
Hansa Rostock
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 17W 11D 7L in their last 35 games (1.77 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.88 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Hansa Rostock been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hansa Rostock in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 65%, Hansa Rostock 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hamburger SV and 59% for Hansa Rostock. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Hamburger SV's games and 47% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hamburger SV's matches and 59% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hansa Rostock defy the odds to beat Hamburger SV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Hamburger SV 0-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.77 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.20 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.14 / defence 0.92 against Hansa Rostock attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 27% | Hansa Rostock 24%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hansa Rostock win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 54%, Hansa Rostock 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with Hansa Rostock winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.