Hamburger SV 3-0 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus Hansa Rostock in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 12 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 3W 5D 0L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hansa Rostock (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hansa Rostock have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away fixtures this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Hamburger SV's favour (1.70 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Hansa Rostock goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 75% and Hansa Rostock 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | Hansa Rostock 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.77 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.177 / defence 1.046 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.856 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.290. Data: 16 Hamburger SV games / 16 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 22%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Hansa Rostock 4.55. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 88% | Hansa Rostock 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Hamburger SV 1.77 / Hansa Rostock 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.177 / def 1.046 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.856 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Hansa Rostock xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 12 December 2021 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Hamburger SV 3 - 0 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 49% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.18) and Hansa Rostock's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hansa Rostock's attack (0.86x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.41
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.92
1.16
Hansa Rostock xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
17%
5.85
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
4%
26.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.0 | 6.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.16 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 6W 8D 2L from 16 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hansa Rostock, meanwhile, have gone 5W 4D 7L across 16 games — 1.19 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hansa Rostock heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 3W 5D 0L from 8 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hansa Rostock's away record stands at 3W 2D 3L across 8 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.19 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Hansa Rostock in 62%.
Last 16 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 6W 8D 2L in their last 16 games (1.62 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.75 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hansa Rostock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
1
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
From 6 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Hansa Rostock have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Hansa Rostock 2-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 88%, Hansa Rostock 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Hamburger SV) and 50% (Hansa Rostock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hansa Rostock in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Hansa Rostock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Hamburger SV's games and 38% of Hansa Rostock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Hamburger SV's matches and 50% of Hansa Rostock's.
Do Hamburger SV and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Hansa Rostock.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Hansa Rostock 3-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 17, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.77 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.16 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hansa Rostock landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 49% | Draw 29% | Hansa Rostock 22%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, Hansa Rostock 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.