Hamburger SV 1-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host Fortuna Düsseldorf at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 16 October 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 3W 5D 1L from 9 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.56 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 1.22 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 2D 4L from 9 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.22 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.22 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.56 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.22 (Fortuna Düsseldorf). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 78% and Fortuna Düsseldorf 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 56% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.078 / defence 1.163 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.771 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.478. Fortuna Düsseldorf bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Hamburger SV games / 9 Fortuna Düsseldorf games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hamburger SV at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.79 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 100% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Hamburger SV 1.46 / Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.078 / def 1.163 | Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.771 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf part of?
Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 37% chance of winning, Fortuna Düsseldorf a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-4L in 9 | 1.22 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.08x the league average against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
37%
2.72
32%
3.08
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.79
1.33
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.24
7%
13.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.33 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hamburger SV come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 5D 1L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-D-D. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fortuna Düsseldorf sit at 1.22 PPG from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hamburger SV's home form reads 1W 3D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken 1.50 points per game from 4 outings (2W 0D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Fortuna Düsseldorf are on 1.44 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 78% of their recent games; Fortuna Düsseldorf in 67%.
Last 9 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 games (1.56 PPG), while Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Fortuna Düsseldorf away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.50 PPG; Fortuna Düsseldorf away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Hamburger SV go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Hamburger SV won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting Fortuna Düsseldorf specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hamburger SV
3
Draws
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 4, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Hamburger SV 4-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fortuna Düsseldorf see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 100%, Fortuna Düsseldorf at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Hamburger SV and 50% for Fortuna Düsseldorf. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Fortuna Düsseldorf away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Fortuna Düsseldorf?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hamburger SV's games and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Fortuna Düsseldorf usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Hamburger SV's matches and 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's.
Do Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Fortuna Düsseldorf in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and Fortuna Düsseldorf finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.46 xG and Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.33 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.77 / defence 1.23, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 37% | Draw 32% | Fortuna Düsseldorf 31%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 56%, Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.56 PPG, Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.