Hamburger SV 2-1 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hamburger SV host FC St. Pauli at Volksparkstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 21 January 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hamburger SV have posted 4W 6D 0L at Volksparkstadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC St. Pauli have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Hamburger SV) versus 1.80 (FC St. Pauli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Hamburger SV register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, FC St. Pauli in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Hamburger SV, 1 for FC St. Pauli and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2021, ended 2–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
FC St. Pauli in-play and half-time data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 74% and FC St. Pauli 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 47% | FC St. Pauli 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.219 / defence 0.960 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.858 / defence 1.399. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.350. FC St. Pauli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.399 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Hamburger SV games / 19 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 18%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | FC St. Pauli 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 80% | FC St. Pauli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 61% | xG Hamburger SV 2.08 / FC St. Pauli 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.219 / def 0.960 | FC St. Pauli attack 0.858 / def 1.399 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC St. Pauli xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Hamburger SV 2 - 1 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 58% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli?
Record (1 meetings): Hamburger SV 0W | Draws 0 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.22x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC St. Pauli's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
58%
1.74
25%
4.03
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.19
1.11
FC St. Pauli xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
13%
8.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
2%
45.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.11 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 19 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 7W 10D 2L record — W-L-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 11W 4D 4L from 19 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hamburger SV on 1.63 PPG, FC St. Pauli on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (4W 6D 0L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC St. Pauli's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 2.05 scored and 1.32 conceded. FC St. Pauli's attacking output running into Hamburger SV's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 19 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 7W 10D 2L in their last 19 games (1.63 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 4D 4L in their last 19 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.80 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Oct 2022, when FC St. Pauli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hamburger SV's record when hosting FC St. Pauli specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
3
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 3, FC St. Pauli have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when FC St. Pauli 0-0 Hamburger SV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 80%, FC St. Pauli at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Hamburger SV and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Hamburger SV's games and 60% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Hamburger SV's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hamburger SV edge out FC St. Pauli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat FC St. Pauli 2-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.08 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.11 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.22 / defence 0.96 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.86 / defence 1.40, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 58% | Draw 25% | FC St. Pauli 18%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 47%, FC St. Pauli 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.63 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.