Hamburger SV 3-0 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Volksparkstadion to take on Hamburger SV. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 November 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hamburger SV — All Games: 4W 6D 0L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV at Volksparkstadion this season: 2W 5D 0L from 7 home games — 1.57 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Ingolstadt 04 have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Ingolstadt 04, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.71 conceded per game.
On current form, Hamburger SV have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Ingolstadt 04 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 86% and FC Ingolstadt 04 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 50% | FC Ingolstadt 04 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.16 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.166 / defence 1.117 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.643 / defence 1.517. League average goals — home 1.222 / away 1.311. FC Ingolstadt 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.517 — this is suppressing Hamburger SV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Hamburger SV games / 14 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 63% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | FC Ingolstadt 04 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 100% | FC Ingolstadt 04 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 63% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Hamburger SV 2.16 / FC Ingolstadt 04 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.166 / def 1.117 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.643 / def 1.517 | league avg home 1.222 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Hamburger SV 3 - 0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 63% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 13% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. FC Ingolstadt 04 (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hamburger SV's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.52x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.16. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus Hamburger SV's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.3%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
63%
1.60
25%
4.02
13%
7.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.10
0.94
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.94
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
12%
8.68
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
1%
68.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.94 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hamburger SV come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 8D 1L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Ingolstadt 04 sit at 0.43 PPG from 14 outings (1W 3D 10L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for FC Ingolstadt 04 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.21 PPG clear of FC Ingolstadt 04 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hamburger SV's home form reads 2W 5D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Ingolstadt 04 have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; FC Ingolstadt 04 are on 0.64 scored and 2.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
FC Ingolstadt 04
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 5W 8D 1L in their last 14 games (1.64 PPG), while FC Ingolstadt 04 have gone 1W 3D 10L in their last 14 (0.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or FC Ingolstadt 04 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.57 PPG; FC Ingolstadt 04 away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
0
Draws
0
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2022, when FC Ingolstadt 04 0-4 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Ingolstadt 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hamburger SV at 100%, FC Ingolstadt 04 at 43%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Hamburger SV and 71% for FC Ingolstadt 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Ingolstadt 04 in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play FC Ingolstadt 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Hamburger SV's games and 43% of FC Ingolstadt 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Hamburger SV's matches and 71% of FC Ingolstadt 04's.
Do Hamburger SV and FC Ingolstadt 04 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Ingolstadt 04 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.16 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 0.94 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Ingolstadt 04 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.17 / defence 1.12 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.64 / defence 1.52, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 63% | Draw 25% | FC Ingolstadt 04 13%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 50%, FC Ingolstadt 04 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Ingolstadt 04's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.