Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus 1. FC Nürnberg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hamburger SV have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Hamburger SV, 1.60 for 1. FC Nürnberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Hamburger SV, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against 1. FC Nürnberg — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 4–1 with Hamburger SV winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hamburger SV and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
1. FC Nürnberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 59% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 64% | 1. FC Nürnberg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.10 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.342 / defence 0.820 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.074 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.620 / away 1.562. Hamburger SV carry an above-average attack strength of 1.342 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Hamburger SV games / 44 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 54% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | 1. FC Nürnberg 4.17. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.10 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.48 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 60% | 1. FC Nürnberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 54% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Hamburger SV 2.10 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.342 / def 0.820 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.074 / def 0.968 | league avg home 1.620 / away 1.562 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 54% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (6 meetings): Hamburger SV 4W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 1.34x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 2.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Nürnberg's attack (1.07x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
54%
1.86
22%
4.60
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.48
1.38
1. FC Nürnberg xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
12%
8.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
3%
33.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.38 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 22W 10D 12L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 20L across 44 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Nürnberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 15W 2D 5L from 22 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Nürnberg's away record stands at 7W 4D 11L across 22 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.50 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 44 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 16W 8D 20L in their last 44 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.14 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 3-0 on 4 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Nürnberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 8 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 5, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when 1. FC Nürnberg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 54%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hamburger SV and 64% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Hamburger SV's games and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hamburger SV's matches and 64% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and 1. FC Nürnberg finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.10 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 54% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Nürnberg 24%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 64%, 1. FC Nürnberg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.