Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Fortuna Düsseldorf take on VfL Bochum.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 7D 0L. Last five: D W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, VfL Bochum are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, VfL Bochum in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 1–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 61% versus VfL Bochum 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.804 / defence 0.901 | VfL Bochum attack 0.848 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.362. Data: 57 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 23 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 34% | VfL Bochum 31%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | VfL Bochum 3.23. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | VfL Bochum 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 34% | VfL Bochum 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 / VfL Bochum 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.804 / def 0.901 | VfL Bochum attack 0.848 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.04
VfL Bochum xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 VfL Bochum.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 34% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 2W | Draws 0 | VfL Bochum 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. VfL Bochum (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.80x the league average against VfL Bochum's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.85x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
34%
2.91
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.13
1.04
VfL Bochum xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.28
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 12.3 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.04 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 21W 15D 21L record — L-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Bochum's form line: 12W 16D 29L from 57 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Bochum.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, VfL Bochum have gone 4W 8D 16L from 28 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 21W 15D 21L in their last 57 games (1.37 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 12W 16D 29L in their last 57 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or VfL Bochum away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.43 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 0-3 on 23 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
VfL Bochum are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, VfL Bochum 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 46% (VfL Bochum).
On the defensive side: VfL Bochum in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play VfL Bochum?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 57% of VfL Bochum's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 46% of VfL Bochum's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out VfL Bochum 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat VfL Bochum 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.09 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Fortuna Düsseldorf beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 0.90 against VfL Bochum attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 34% | Draw 34% | VfL Bochum 31%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 34%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortuna Düsseldorf arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.