Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host SV Sandhausen at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 4D 3L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Sandhausen have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 1.20 PPG versus SV Sandhausen's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with Fortuna Düsseldorf winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71% and SV Sandhausen 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 47% | SV Sandhausen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.834 / defence 1.192 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.959 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.288. SV Sandhausen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 17 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 35%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | SV Sandhausen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 88% | SV Sandhausen 78% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 / SV Sandhausen 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.834 / def 1.192 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.959 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.47
SV Sandhausen xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 December 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 36% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (0.83) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
36%
2.79
30%
3.38
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.98
1.47
SV Sandhausen xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
8%
12.17
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.47 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 17 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 5W 5D 7L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, 0.82 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.18 PPG, SV Sandhausen on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 0.88 PPG from 8 outings (1W 4D 3L).
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 2D 3L from 8 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.82 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Sandhausen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.12 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; SV Sandhausen in 71%.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SV Sandhausen away?
SV Sandhausen's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 0.88 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SV Sandhausen specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Fortuna Düsseldorf
0
Draws
2
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 2, SV Sandhausen have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-0 SV Sandhausen.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 88%, SV Sandhausen at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 75% for SV Sandhausen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 88% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 75% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Sandhausen defy the odds to beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Sandhausen beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.47 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortuna Düsseldorf fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.83 / defence 1.19 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.96 / defence 1.41, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 36% | Draw 30% | SV Sandhausen 35%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual SV Sandhausen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 47%, SV Sandhausen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.18 PPG, SV Sandhausen 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Sandhausen win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.