Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 2 as Fortuna Düsseldorf welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Merkur Spiel-Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 July 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Fortuna Düsseldorf have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07 — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Fortuna Düsseldorf) versus 1.80 (SC Paderborn 07). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1 for SC Paderborn 07 and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% and SC Paderborn 07 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 51% | SC Paderborn 07 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.090 / defence 0.922 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.954 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.524 / away 1.341. Data: 35 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 35 SC Paderborn 07 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 27%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | SC Paderborn 07 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fortuna Düsseldorf are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | SC Paderborn 07 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Jul 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 / SC Paderborn 07 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.090 / def 0.922 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.954 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.524 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 22 July 2022 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 44% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.44
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.75
1.18
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
14%
7.34
6%
17.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.18 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fortuna Düsseldorf come into this having played 35 games, going 12W 11D 12L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.54 PPG from 35 outings (14W 12D 9L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.34 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home form reads 6W 6D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.88 points per game from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.74 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 60%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 12W 11D 12L in their last 35 games (1.34 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 14W 12D 9L in their last 35 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.41 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Fortuna Düsseldorf have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when SC Paderborn 07 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
4
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 71%, SC Paderborn 07 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 59% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 53% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortuna Düsseldorf edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.57 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.18 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 44% | Draw 29% | SC Paderborn 07 27%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 51%, SC Paderborn 07 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.34 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortuna Düsseldorf win broke the near-deadlock. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.