Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortuna Düsseldorf host Hertha BSC at Merkur Spiel-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortuna Düsseldorf stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hertha BSC's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fortuna Düsseldorf at 1.70 PPG versus Hertha BSC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, Hertha BSC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–1 with Hertha BSC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fortuna Düsseldorf in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Hertha BSC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% versus Hertha BSC 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 55% | Hertha BSC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.841 / defence 0.921 | Hertha BSC attack 1.295 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.295. Hertha BSC have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 60 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 60 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Hertha BSC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 70% | Hertha BSC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 / Hertha BSC 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.841 / def 0.921 | Hertha BSC attack 1.295 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2 - 5 Hertha BSC.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 3W | Draws 1 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack rating (0.84) and Hertha BSC's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hertha BSC's attack versus Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
32%
3.10
27%
3.65
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.91
1.54
Hertha BSC xG
3.10
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.69
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
10%
9.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.54 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 23W 15D 22L record — D-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC's form line: 23W 16D 21L from 60 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortuna Düsseldorf on 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, Hertha BSC have gone 14W 6D 9L from 29 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.43 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hertha BSC away?
Hertha BSC's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.48 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 1.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Mar 2026, when Hertha BSC won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's record when hosting Hertha BSC specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
2
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 3, Hertha BSC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%, Hertha BSC 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 69% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 59% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 69% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hertha BSC run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Fortuna Düsseldorf.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-5 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.36 xG and Hertha BSC 1.54 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Hertha BSC outscored their 1.54 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.84 / defence 0.92 against Hertha BSC attack 1.29 / defence 1.02, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 27% | Hertha BSC 40%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 55%, Hertha BSC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40 PPG, Hertha BSC 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.