Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Düsseldorf have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf at Merkur Spiel-Arena this season: 1W 2D 2L from 5 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hannover 96 (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hannover 96, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hannover 96 away from home this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.10 for Hannover 96 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Hannover 96 half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 75% versus Hannover 96 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% | Hannover 96 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and Hannover 96 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.222 / defence 1.235 | Hannover 96 attack 0.730 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.360. Hannover 96 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Fortuna Düsseldorf's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 12 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Draw 30% | Hannover 96 24%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Hannover 96 4.17. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.73 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Düsseldorf at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 100% | Hannover 96 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Draw 30% | Hannover 96 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 / Hannover 96 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.222 / def 1.235 | Hannover 96 attack 0.730 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Hannover 96 xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 Hannover 96.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 46% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.22x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.73x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.30
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.96
1.23
Hannover 96 xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
23.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.23 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hannover 96, meanwhile, have gone 3W 3D 6L across 12 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hannover 96 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.00 for Hannover 96. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hannover 96's away record stands at 1W 1D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 0.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Hannover 96
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Hannover 96 away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.00 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Hannover 96 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hannover 96 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
6
Draws
3
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, Hannover 96 have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hannover 96 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 100%, Hannover 96 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 60% for Hannover 96. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hannover 96 in 40%; Hannover 96 in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Hannover 96?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 20% of Hannover 96's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 60% of Hannover 96's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and Hannover 96 finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.73 xG and Hannover 96 1.23 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.22 / defence 1.24 against Hannover 96 attack 0.73 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 46% | Draw 30% | Hannover 96 24%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 58%, Hannover 96 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.25 PPG, Hannover 96 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.