Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC St. Pauli make the trip to Düsseldorf Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 January 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Düsseldorf Arena, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC St. Pauli's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 2.00 for FC St. Pauli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Düsseldorf register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC St. Pauli in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Düsseldorf lead 1W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Düsseldorf — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC St. Pauli — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% versus FC St. Pauli 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% | FC St. Pauli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.074 / defence 1.207 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.355. Data: 52 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 52 FC St. Pauli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 3.12 | Draw 4.35 | FC St. Pauli 2.22. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Düsseldorf 80% | FC St. Pauli 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Düsseldorf Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 / FC St. Pauli 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.074 / def 1.207 | FC St. Pauli attack 1.137 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.86
FC St. Pauli xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Düsseldorf Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 2 FC St. Pauli.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli being played?
The match is being played at Düsseldorf Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 32% chance of winning, FC St. Pauli a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 3 | FC St. Pauli 1W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. FC St. Pauli (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 1.07x the league average against FC St. Pauli's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC St. Pauli's attack (1.14x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
32%
3.09
23%
4.39
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
3.42
1.86
FC St. Pauli xG
3.09
32%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.42
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
5%
19.80
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.86 for FC St. Pauli, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Fortuna Düsseldorf have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 26W 11D 15L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli's form line: 25W 19D 8L from 52 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.81 for FC St. Pauli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortuna Düsseldorf have posted 1.92 PPG from 25 outings (14W 6D 5L).
On the road, FC St. Pauli have gone 11W 7D 7L from 25 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; FC St. Pauli are on 1.69 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
FC St. Pauli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 26W 11D 15L in their last 52 games (1.71 PPG), while FC St. Pauli have gone 25W 19D 8L in their last 52 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or FC St. Pauli away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.92 PPG; FC St. Pauli away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or FC St. Pauli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, FC St. Pauli in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
3
Draws
2
FC St. Pauli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
From 6 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, FC St. Pauli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 68%, FC St. Pauli 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 60% for FC St. Pauli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / FC St. Pauli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play FC St. Pauli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's games and 60% of FC St. Pauli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs FC St. Pauli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's matches and 60% of FC St. Pauli's.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and FC St. Pauli tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC St. Pauli in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Düsseldorf Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.56 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.86 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.07 / defence 1.21 against FC St. Pauli attack 1.14 / defence 0.90, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 32% | Draw 23% | FC St. Pauli 45%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 62%, FC St. Pauli 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.71 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.