Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Spiel-Arena plays host to Fortuna Düsseldorf versus 1. FC Heidenheim in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Saturday 11 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W, 1. FC Heidenheim 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Fortuna Düsseldorf half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Düsseldorf 58% versus 1. FC Heidenheim 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54% | 1. FC Heidenheim 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.62 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.227 / defence 0.924 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.883 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.233. Data: 57 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 57 1. FC Heidenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | 1. FC Heidenheim 4.35. Fortuna Düsseldorf hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortuna Düsseldorf as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Düsseldorf if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | 1. FC Heidenheim 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.62 / 1. FC Heidenheim 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.227 / def 0.924 | 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.883 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Düsseldorf (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.01
1. FC Heidenheim xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 52% chance of winning, 1. FC Heidenheim a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Düsseldorf the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim?
Record (3 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Heidenheim 2W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. 1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fortuna Düsseldorf's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Heidenheim's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. Flip it around — 1. FC Heidenheim's attack (0.88x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Düsseldorf Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.04
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.63
1.01
1. FC Heidenheim xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
5%
21.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.01 for 1. FC Heidenheim, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 23W 13D 21L from 57 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Heidenheim, meanwhile, have gone 28W 14D 15L across 57 games — 1.72 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.72 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1. FC Heidenheim's away record stands at 9W 7D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1. FC Heidenheim's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Heidenheim are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 23W 13D 21L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 28W 14D 15L in their last 57 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or 1. FC Heidenheim away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.75 PPG; 1. FC Heidenheim away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Fortuna Düsseldorf or 1. FC Heidenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, 1. FC Heidenheim in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Heidenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1
Draws
2
1. FC Heidenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim?
From 4 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 1, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-1 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
1. FC Heidenheim see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 68%, 1. FC Heidenheim 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 43% (1. FC Heidenheim).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / 1. FC Heidenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play 1. FC Heidenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 39% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs 1. FC Heidenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 43% of 1. FC Heidenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, 1. FC Heidenheim in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1. FC Heidenheim finished level at 1-1 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.62 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.01 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.88 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 52% | Draw 25% | 1. FC Heidenheim 23%, with Fortuna Düsseldorf to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 54%, 1. FC Heidenheim 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.44 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fortuna Düsseldorf (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.