FC St. Pauli 3-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates FC St. Pauli at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as FC St. Pauli welcome SV Sandhausen to Millerntor-Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 24 November 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC St. Pauli have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 6W 0D 0L from 6 2. Bundesliga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 clean sheets from 6 home games (67%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Sandhausen's away record: 3W 1D 2L from 6 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.67 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
FC St. Pauli in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 46% versus SV Sandhausen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC St. Pauli 69% | SV Sandhausen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.99 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.528 / defence 0.862 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.877 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.182 / away 1.325. FC St. Pauli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.528 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 FC St. Pauli games / 13 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 57% | Draw 27% | SV Sandhausen 15%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | SV Sandhausen 6.67. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 33% | SV Sandhausen 67%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 57% | Draw 27% | SV Sandhausen 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.99 / SV Sandhausen 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.528 / def 0.862 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.877 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.182 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.00
SV Sandhausen xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 57% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (1.53) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.66
15%
6.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.99
1.00
SV Sandhausen xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
6.47
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
2%
47.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.00 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 2D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SV Sandhausen sit at 0.92 PPG from 13 outings (3W 3D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC St. Pauli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of SV Sandhausen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 6W 0D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SV Sandhausen have taken 1.67 points per game from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.92 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC St. Pauli are averaging 2.15 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.00 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SV Sandhausen in 62%.
Defensively: FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 3W 3D 7L in their last 13 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SV Sandhausen away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 3.00 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.67 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or SV Sandhausen been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, SV Sandhausen in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting SV Sandhausen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2023, when SV Sandhausen 0-5 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 33%, SV Sandhausen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for FC St. Pauli and 67% for SV Sandhausen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SV Sandhausen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 67% of SV Sandhausen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 67% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SV Sandhausen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SV Sandhausen 3-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.99 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.00 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.53 / defence 0.86 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.88 / defence 1.10, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 57% | Draw 27% | SV Sandhausen 15%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 69%, SV Sandhausen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.92. Form held, and they took the win. SV Sandhausen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.