FC St. Pauli 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 March 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
FC St. Pauli (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Millerntor-Stadion, FC St. Pauli have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Millerntor-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.70 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC St. Pauli lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC St. Pauli half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 58% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 58% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.997 / defence 0.629 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.817 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.251. SpVgg Greuther Fürth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.629 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 FC St. Pauli games / 23 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 13%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7.69. The model has a clear lean to FC St. Pauli (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: FC St. Pauli 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 40% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.82 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.997 / def 0.629 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.817 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
0.64
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
40%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 66% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.00x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (0.82x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.63x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 57/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.58
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.46
0.64
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
2%
49.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 10.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 0.64 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, FC St. Pauli have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 25W 17D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 9W 18D 30L from 57 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC St. Pauli are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, FC St. Pauli have posted 2.14 PPG from 28 outings (17W 9D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 1W 7D 20L from 28 away games — 0.36 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.00 scored and 2.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 70%.
Last 57 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 25W 17D 15L in their last 57 games (1.61 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 9W 18D 30L in their last 57 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.14 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 5 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 50%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for FC St. Pauli and 79% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC St. Pauli's games and 75% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 79% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do FC St. Pauli and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC St. Pauli edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.82 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.64 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.00 / defence 0.63 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.82 / defence 1.29, drawn from 57/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 66% | Draw 22% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 13%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 58%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.