FC St. Pauli 0-0 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 54%, yet in-form Holstein Kiel provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host Holstein Kiel at Millerntor-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Holstein Kiel — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC St. Pauli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Holstein Kiel in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Holstein Kiel 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2021, ended 0–3 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Holstein Kiel trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC St. Pauli 61% and Holstein Kiel 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 61% | Holstein Kiel 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 2.04 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 1.128 / defence 0.781 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.299 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.418 / away 1.289. Holstein Kiel bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing FC St. Pauli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Holstein Kiel have an above-average attack strength of 1.299 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC St. Pauli's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 FC St. Pauli games / 49 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 24%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Holstein Kiel 4.17. FC St. Pauli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC St. Pauli at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Holstein Kiel (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 60% | Holstein Kiel 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG FC St. Pauli 2.04 / Holstein Kiel 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 1.128 / def 0.781 | Holstein Kiel attack 1.299 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.418 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Holstein Kiel xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 0 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 54% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 1W | Draws 0 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 1.13x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 2.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
54%
1.85
22%
4.50
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
3.35
1.31
Holstein Kiel xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
3%
32.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.31 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 19W 15D 15L from 49 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 17L across 49 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.47 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 14W 8D 2L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — FC St. Pauli are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 7W 9D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.53 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC St. Pauli have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Holstein Kiel in 65%.
Last 49 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 19W 15D 15L in their last 49 games (1.47 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 18W 14D 17L in their last 49 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Holstein Kiel away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 2.08 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC St. Pauli go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
FC St. Pauli
1
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
From 8 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 6, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC St. Pauli at 58%, Holstein Kiel at 88%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC St. Pauli and 71% for Holstein Kiel. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Holstein Kiel?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of FC St. Pauli's games and 88% of Holstein Kiel's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC St. Pauli's matches and 71% of Holstein Kiel's.
Do FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC St. Pauli's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel finished level at 0-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 2.04 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.31 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Holstein Kiel landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Holstein Kiel attack 1.30 / defence 1.27, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 54% | Draw 22% | Holstein Kiel 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 61%, Holstein Kiel 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.47 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.