1. FC Heidenheim 1-1 SV Sandhausen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees SV Sandhausen travel to Voith-Arena to take on 1. FC Heidenheim. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 February 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SV Sandhausen — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for SV Sandhausen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
1. FC Heidenheim carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, SV Sandhausen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for SV Sandhausen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 3–1 with 1. FC Heidenheim winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SV Sandhausen in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 52% versus SV Sandhausen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | SV Sandhausen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.52 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.227 / defence 0.958 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.795 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.118 / away 1.462. Data: 23 1. FC Heidenheim games / 23 SV Sandhausen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 24%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | SV Sandhausen 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 70% | SV Sandhausen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.52 / SV Sandhausen 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.227 / def 0.958 | SV Sandhausen attack 0.795 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.118 / away 1.462 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.11
SV Sandhausen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 1 SV Sandhausen.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 43% chance of winning, SV Sandhausen a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 1W | Draws 0 | SV Sandhausen 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. SV Sandhausen (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from 1. FC Heidenheim's attack rating (1.23) and SV Sandhausen's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SV Sandhausen's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
43%
2.32
32%
3.08
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.63
1.11
SV Sandhausen xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
5%
18.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.2 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.11 for SV Sandhausen, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 23 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 11W 5D 7L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SV Sandhausen's form line: 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, 1.09 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D. The sample for SV Sandhausen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Sandhausen.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.18 PPG from 11 outings (7W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SV Sandhausen have gone 5W 3D 3L from 11 away games — 1.64 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.09 PPG overall record — SV Sandhausen travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; SV Sandhausen are on 1.09 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 23 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
SV Sandhausen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 5D 7L in their last 23 games (1.65 PPG), while SV Sandhausen have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or SV Sandhausen away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.18 PPG; SV Sandhausen away: 1.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting SV Sandhausen specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
SV Sandhausen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, SV Sandhausen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen last play each other?
They last met on 20 May 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 SV Sandhausen.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
SV Sandhausen see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 64%, SV Sandhausen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (1. FC Heidenheim) and 54% (SV Sandhausen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SV Sandhausen in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / SV Sandhausen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play SV Sandhausen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 64% of SV Sandhausen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs SV Sandhausen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 54% of SV Sandhausen's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, SV Sandhausen in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim and SV Sandhausen finished level at 1-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.52 xG and SV Sandhausen 1.11 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.23 / defence 0.96 against SV Sandhausen attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 43% | Draw 32% | SV Sandhausen 24%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, SV Sandhausen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
SV Sandhausen's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.