1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host 1. FC Nürnberg at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 3 April 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
1. FC Heidenheim — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Heidenheim at 1.50 PPG versus 1. FC Nürnberg's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1. FC Nürnberg 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 0–4 with 1. FC Nürnberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 56% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 56% | 1. FC Nürnberg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.49 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.141 / defence 0.959 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.983 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.122 / away 1.422. Data: 27 1. FC Heidenheim games / 27 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Nürnberg 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 80% | 1. FC Nürnberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.49 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.141 / def 0.959 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.983 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.122 / away 1.422 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Heidenheim 3 - 1 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Nürnberg 1W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates 1. FC Heidenheim's attack at 1.14x the league average against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.46
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
2.83
1.34
1. FC Nürnberg xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
7%
13.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.34 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 27 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 12W 6D 9L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for 1. FC Heidenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg's form line: 13W 7D 7L from 27 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Heidenheim on 1.56 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.15 PPG from 13 outings (8W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.56 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 6W 4D 3L from 13 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.48 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.15 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.69 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
1. FC Heidenheim go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Feb 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Heidenheim's record when hosting 1. FC Nürnberg specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 4 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 3, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 5-0 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 69%, 1. FC Nürnberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 62% for 1. FC Nürnberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 54% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Heidenheim cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over 1. FC Nürnberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat 1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.49 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.14 / defence 0.96 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.98 / defence 1.16, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Nürnberg 32%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 56%, 1. FC Nürnberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.56 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.