1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim host 1. FC Magdeburg at Voith-Arena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Heidenheim stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Voith-Arena, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, 1. FC Magdeburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
1. FC Magdeburg's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, 1. FC Heidenheim have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for 1. FC Heidenheim, 0 for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 47% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 57% | 1. FC Magdeburg 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.81 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.408 / defence 0.840 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.072 / defence 1.268. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.295. 1. FC Heidenheim carry an above-average attack strength of 1.408 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.268 — this is suppressing 1. FC Heidenheim's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 1. FC Heidenheim games / 30 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 71% | Draw 15% | 1. FC Magdeburg 13%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 1.41 | Draw 6.67 | 1. FC Magdeburg 7.69. The model has a clear lean to 1. FC Heidenheim (71%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.97. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.97 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1. FC Heidenheim are the pick at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | 1. FC Magdeburg 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 71% | Draw 15% | 1. FC Magdeburg 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 65% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.81 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.408 / def 0.840 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.072 / def 1.268 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.17
1. FC Magdeburg xG
65%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 0 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 71% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Magdeburg 0W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.41x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Magdeburg's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Magdeburg's attack versus 1. FC Heidenheim's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.1%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
71%
1.40
15%
6.52
13%
7.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.97
1.17
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.40
71%
Home win
6.52
15%
Draw
7.59
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
6%
16.56
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
1%
125.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 5.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.17 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.97.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, 1. FC Heidenheim have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 17W 9D 4L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
1. FC Magdeburg's form line: 11W 5D 14L from 30 games, 1.27 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, 1. FC Heidenheim are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against 1. FC Magdeburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 2.40 PPG from 15 outings (11W 3D 1L).
On the road, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 6W 2D 7L from 15 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.40 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg in 63%.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Current Season
1. FC Magdeburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 17W 9D 4L in their last 30 games (2.00 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 11W 5D 14L in their last 30 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.40 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
1. FC Heidenheim
2
Draws
0
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 2 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 0, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when 1. FC Heidenheim 0-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 53%, 1. FC Magdeburg 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 87% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 73% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 87% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at 1. FC Heidenheim's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 31, as 1. FC Heidenheim and 1. FC Magdeburg drew 0-0 in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.81 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.17 xG, a combined 3.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 2.8 short of their projected output. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.41 / defence 0.84 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.07 / defence 1.27, drawn from 64/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 71% | Draw 15% | 1. FC Magdeburg 13%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 57%, 1. FC Magdeburg 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Heidenheim arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.