Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Erzgebirge AUE welcome 1. FC Nürnberg to Erzgebirgsstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 December 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Erzgebirge AUE stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Erzgebirge AUE, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Erzgebirge AUE's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 5L across 9 games at Erzgebirgsstadion this term (0.89 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
1. FC Nürnberg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Nürnberg away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Erzgebirge AUE 1.10 PPG, 1. FC Nürnberg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Erzgebirge AUE, 0 for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Jul 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Erzgebirge AUE in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Erzgebirge AUE 53% versus 1. FC Nürnberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Erzgebirge AUE 47% | 1. FC Nürnberg 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.667 / defence 1.144 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.813 / defence 1.236. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.267. Erzgebirge AUE's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Nürnberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.236 — this is suppressing Erzgebirge AUE's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Erzgebirge AUE games / 17 1. FC Nürnberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 36%. Fair-value odds: Erzgebirge AUE 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | 1. FC Nürnberg 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Nürnberg as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Erzgebirge AUE 44% | 1. FC Nürnberg 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 / 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.667 / def 1.144 | 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.813 / def 1.236 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Expected Goals
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg kick off?
Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What was the final score in Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Erzgebirge AUE 1 - 3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Where is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg being played?
The match is being played at Erzgebirgsstadion.
What competition is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg part of?
Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our statistical model gives Erzgebirge AUE a 30% chance of winning, 1. FC Nürnberg a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg will score (BTTS).
Will Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg?
Record (1 meetings): Erzgebirge AUE 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Nürnberg 0W.
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg in?
Erzgebirge AUE (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. 1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Erzgebirge AUE's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against 1. FC Nürnberg's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Nürnberg's attack versus Erzgebirge AUE's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
30%
3.36
34%
2.92
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Erzgebirge AUE xG
Total xG
2.23
1.18
1. FC Nürnberg xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Erzgebirge AUE and 1.18 for 1. FC Nürnberg, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Erzgebirge AUE come into this having played 17 games, going 3W 5D 9L for 0.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Erzgebirge AUE is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Nürnberg sit at 1.59 PPG from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1. FC Nürnberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Erzgebirge AUE — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Erzgebirge AUE's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Nürnberg have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Erzgebirge AUE are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Nürnberg are on 1.41 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Erzgebirge AUE
Blended
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg in coming into this match?
Erzgebirge AUE have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 7W 6D 4L in their last 17 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Erzgebirge AUE at home or 1. FC Nürnberg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Erzgebirge AUE at home: 0.88 PPG; 1. FC Nürnberg away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Erzgebirge AUE or 1. FC Nürnberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Erzgebirge AUE have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, 1. FC Nürnberg in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Erzgebirge AUE
1
Draws
1
1. FC Nürnberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg?
From 2 meetings on record, Erzgebirge AUE have won 0, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg last play each other?
They last met on 18 December 2021, when Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 1. FC Nürnberg.
Who has won more matches between Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Erzgebirge AUE see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Erzgebirge AUE 50%, 1. FC Nürnberg 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Erzgebirge AUE) and 62% (1. FC Nürnberg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Erzgebirge AUE home games / 1. FC Nürnberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Erzgebirge AUE play 1. FC Nürnberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Erzgebirge AUE's games and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Erzgebirge AUE vs 1. FC Nürnberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Erzgebirge AUE's recent games and 62% of 1. FC Nürnberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Erzgebirge AUE and 1. FC Nürnberg tend to score early?
Erzgebirge AUE have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, 1. FC Nürnberg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Erzgebirge AUE.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat Erzgebirge AUE 1-3 at Erzgebirgsstadion, Regular Season - 18, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Erzgebirge AUE 1.05 xG and 1. FC Nürnberg 1.18 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Erzgebirge AUE attack 0.67 / defence 1.14 against 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Erzgebirge AUE 30% | Draw 34% | 1. FC Nürnberg 36%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Erzgebirge AUE 47%, 1. FC Nürnberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Erzgebirge AUE's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Nürnberg arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Erzgebirge AUE (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.