Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 Karlsruher SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Karlsruher SC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Karlsruher SC travel to Eintracht-Stadion to take on Eintracht Braunschweig. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Eintracht Braunschweig — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Eintracht Braunschweig at Eintracht-Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Karlsruher SC have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Karlsruher SC have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Karlsruher SC have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Karlsruher SC — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Eintracht Braunschweig's 30% rate and Karlsruher SC's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1 for Karlsruher SC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Eintracht Braunschweig winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Karlsruher SC in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 43% versus Karlsruher SC 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 57% | Karlsruher SC 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.936 / defence 1.086 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.946 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.570 / away 1.324. Karlsruher SC's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 37 Karlsruher SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Karlsruher SC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karlsruher SC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karlsruher SC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | Karlsruher SC 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 / Karlsruher SC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.936 / def 1.086 | Karlsruher SC attack 0.946 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.570 / away 1.324 • Poisson stance: Karlsruher SC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Karlsruher SC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC?
Eintracht Braunschweig 1 - 2 Karlsruher SC.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 28% chance of winning, Karlsruher SC a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Karlsruher SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 2W | Draws 1 | Karlsruher SC 1W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Karlsruher SC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Eintracht Braunschweig's attack rating (0.94) and Karlsruher SC's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karlsruher SC's attack versus Eintracht Braunschweig's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karlsruher SC Win
28%
3.53
30%
3.35
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
2.44
1.36
Karlsruher SC xG
3.53
28%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.36 for Karlsruher SC, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Eintracht Braunschweig's recent record stands at 11W 5D 21L from 37 games, a 1.03 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Karlsruher SC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 11D 9L across 37 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Karlsruher SC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Karlsruher SC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Eintracht Braunschweig heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Eintracht Braunschweig have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Karlsruher SC's away record stands at 6W 6D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Karlsruher SC are on 2.00 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karlsruher SC in 62%.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
Karlsruher SC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 5D 21L in their last 37 games (1.03 PPG), while Karlsruher SC have gone 17W 11D 9L in their last 37 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or Karlsruher SC away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.39 PPG; Karlsruher SC away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Eintracht Braunschweig's record when hosting Karlsruher SC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Eintracht Braunschweig
1
Draws
3
Karlsruher SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 4, Karlsruher SC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Karlsruher SC.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC?
Eintracht Braunschweig have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Karlsruher SC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 44%, Karlsruher SC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 56% (Karlsruher SC).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 28% of games; Karlsruher SC in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / Karlsruher SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play Karlsruher SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 56% of Karlsruher SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs Karlsruher SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 56% of Karlsruher SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and Karlsruher SC tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Karlsruher SC in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Karlsruher SC edge out Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karlsruher SC beat Eintracht Braunschweig 1-2 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.08 xG and Karlsruher SC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Karlsruher SC attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 28% | Draw 30% | Karlsruher SC 42%, with Karlsruher SC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 57%, Karlsruher SC 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Karlsruher SC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Karlsruher SC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.