Dynamo Dresden 3-0 FC Ingolstadt 04 – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates FC Ingolstadt 04 at 81%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees FC Ingolstadt 04 travel to Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion to take on Dynamo Dresden. The game is scheduled for Saturday 24 July 2021, 12:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Dresden 0.71 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 3.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.722 / away 3.069. Data: 0 Dynamo Dresden games / 0 FC Ingolstadt 04 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 4% | Draw 14% | FC Ingolstadt 04 81%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Dresden 25.00 | Draw 7.14 | FC Ingolstadt 04 1.23. The model has a clear lean to FC Ingolstadt 04 (81%) — a 77pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Ingolstadt 04 are the pick at 81% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.71 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Dresden 4% | Draw 14% | FC Ingolstadt 04 81% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 50% | xG Dynamo Dresden 0.71 / FC Ingolstadt 04 3.00 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Dresden attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.722 / away 3.069 • Poisson stance: FC Ingolstadt 04 (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Dynamo Dresden xG
Expected Goals
3.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kick off?
Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What was the final score in Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Dynamo Dresden 3 - 0 FC Ingolstadt 04.
Where is Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 being played?
The match is being played at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion.
What competition is Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 part of?
Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Dresden a 4% chance of winning, FC Ingolstadt 04 a 81% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making FC Ingolstadt 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04 will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04 in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dynamo Dresden's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FC Ingolstadt 04's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.71. The same calculation in reverse, FC Ingolstadt 04's attack versus Dynamo Dresden's defence, projects 3.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-3 (11.1%), 0-4 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win
4%
23.53
14%
7.00
81%
1.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
0 – 4
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Dynamo Dresden xG
Total xG
3.71
3.00
FC Ingolstadt 04 xG
23.53
4%
Home win
7.00
14%
Draw
1.23
81%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
5%
20.09
49%
2.03
Win to Nil
0%
–
40%
2.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.5 |
| 2 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04 expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Dynamo Dresden and 3.00 for FC Ingolstadt 04, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Dresden vs FC Ingolstadt 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Dresden
Pre-Season
FC Ingolstadt 04
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dynamo Dresden
0
Draws
1
FC Ingolstadt 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Dresden have won 1, FC Ingolstadt 04 have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Dresden and FC Ingolstadt 04 last play each other?
They last met on 18 December 2021, when FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 Dynamo Dresden.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Dresden home games / FC Ingolstadt 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Dynamo Dresden run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Ingolstadt 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Dresden beat FC Ingolstadt 04 3-0 at Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Dresden 0.71 xG and FC Ingolstadt 04 3.00 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dynamo Dresden beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Ingolstadt 04 landed 3.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Dresden attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against FC Ingolstadt 04 attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Dresden 4% | Draw 14% | FC Ingolstadt 04 81%, with FC Ingolstadt 04 to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a Dynamo Dresden win, an outcome the model had rated at just 4% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.