Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Hansa Rostock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hansa Rostock at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld host Hansa Rostock at SchücoArena in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 10 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Arminia Bielefeld — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld at SchücoArena this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hansa Rostock have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Hansa Rostock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hansa Rostock's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Arminia Bielefeld) versus 0.90 (Hansa Rostock). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Hansa Rostock 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Hansa Rostock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Arminia Bielefeld in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Hansa Rostock in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 53% versus Hansa Rostock 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 45% | Hansa Rostock 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.005 / defence 1.233 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.875 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.313. Data: 19 Arminia Bielefeld games / 53 Hansa Rostock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 38%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Hansa Rostock 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hansa Rostock as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hansa Rostock offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 70% | Hansa Rostock 30%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 / Hansa Rostock 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.005 / def 1.233 | Hansa Rostock attack 0.875 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Hansa Rostock (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Hansa Rostock xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 10 February 2023 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 1 Hansa Rostock.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 37% chance of winning, Hansa Rostock a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hansa Rostock the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Hansa Rostock 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Hansa Rostock (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Hansa Rostock's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Hansa Rostock's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hansa Rostock Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.98
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.83
1.42
Hansa Rostock xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.42 for Hansa Rostock, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 53 games, going 11W 15D 27L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hansa Rostock sit at 1.17 PPG from 53 outings (16W 14D 23L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hansa Rostock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Arminia Bielefeld on 0.91 PPG, Hansa Rostock on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 6W 10D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Hansa Rostock have taken 1.35 points per game from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hansa Rostock are on 1.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 53 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Hansa Rostock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 11W 15D 27L in their last 53 games (0.91 PPG), while Hansa Rostock have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hansa Rostock away?
Hansa Rostock's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.08 PPG; Hansa Rostock away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
2
Hansa Rostock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock?
From 2 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Hansa Rostock have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 Hansa Rostock.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock?
Hansa Rostock have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hansa Rostock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 62%, Hansa Rostock 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 54% (Hansa Rostock).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 27% of games; Hansa Rostock in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hansa Rostock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hansa Rostock?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 42% of Hansa Rostock's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hansa Rostock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 54% of Hansa Rostock's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hansa Rostock tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Hansa Rostock in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hansa Rostock edge out Arminia Bielefeld 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hansa Rostock beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-1 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 20, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 1.41 xG and Hansa Rostock 1.42 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Hansa Rostock attack 0.88 / defence 0.97, drawn from 19/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 37% | Draw 25% | Hansa Rostock 38%, with Hansa Rostock to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 45%, Hansa Rostock 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hansa Rostock's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Arminia Bielefeld 0.91 PPG, Hansa Rostock 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hansa Rostock win broke the near-deadlock. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward. Hansa Rostock (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.