Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Arminia Bielefeld welcome Hamburger SV to SchücoArena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 August 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arminia Bielefeld stand at 0W 3D 7L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Arminia Bielefeld's home record at SchücoArena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Arminia Bielefeld are significantly better at SchücoArena than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, Hamburger SV have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Hamburger SV have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hamburger SV's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hamburger SV are 2.10 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
Arminia Bielefeld trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hamburger SV trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 49% versus Hamburger SV 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 43% | Hamburger SV 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.89 xG and Hamburger SV 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.717 / defence 1.340 | Hamburger SV attack 1.212 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.338. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.717 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hamburger SV have an above-average attack strength of 1.212 — the away xG of 2.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Arminia Bielefeld games / 37 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 14% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 67%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 7.14 | Draw 5.26 | Hamburger SV 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (67%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 50% | Hamburger SV 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 14% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 52% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.89 / Hamburger SV 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.717 / def 1.340 | Hamburger SV attack 1.212 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Hamburger SV xG
52%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 2 Hamburger SV.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 14% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 67% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Arminia Bielefeld's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Hamburger SV's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus Arminia Bielefeld's defence, projects 2.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
14%
7.09
19%
5.23
67%
1.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
3.06
2.17
Hamburger SV xG
7.09
14%
Home win
5.23
19%
Draw
1.50
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
11%
8.78
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
2%
62.30
28%
3.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 2.17 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 5W 13D 19L from 37 games, a 0.76 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hamburger SV, meanwhile, have gone 18W 11D 8L across 37 games — 1.76 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hamburger SV, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 2W 10D 6L from 18 games — 0.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hamburger SV's away record stands at 8W 6D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 37 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
Hamburger SV
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 13D 19L in their last 37 games (0.76 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 18W 11D 8L in their last 37 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.89 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Arminia Bielefeld or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arminia Bielefeld have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Arminia Bielefeld
0
Draws
2
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 0, Hamburger SV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Hamburger SV 2-1 Arminia Bielefeld.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 56%, Hamburger SV 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 39% (Hamburger SV).
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV in 33%; Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Arminia Bielefeld's games and 56% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 39% of Hamburger SV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat Arminia Bielefeld 0-2 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 4, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.89 xG and Hamburger SV 2.17 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.72 / defence 1.34 against Hamburger SV attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 14% | Draw 19% | Hamburger SV 67%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 43%, Hamburger SV 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.76. Form held, and they took the win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.